The disappointing more-than-hawkish U.S FOMC stance over monetary tightening in the month of March in order to tame inflation rate turned out to be suppressive for equities & commodities in late January. How-so-ever, optimism still looms over global recovery from Omicron variant & easing down of Russia-Ukraine conflicts.
These led the upside in U.S & other world markets. Now, the traders & investors eyes upcoming event U.S Non-farm payroll data release which will be issued on February 04, 7.00pm IST, Friday & will show a change in the number of employed people during the previous month, i.e. January, excluding the farming industry. The outcome may impact Fed’s future interest rate decision with a concern over economic growth.
The report expects a mild rise in employment figure by 145K; although lower than previous figure of 199K whereas no change in Unemployment Rate is forecasted.
Below is the Graph showing the changes in Employment data since last three months.
Above graph shows a slowing progress since last two amid multiple factors.
For the data release of U.S ADP Non-farm Employment Change on February 02, the number of employed people decreased by 307K much lower than forecast 185K; which may contribute into slightly negative NFP results on Friday.
If NFP data comes out to be stronger, then the possible effect can be – strong US Dollar Index, soft precious metals & stronger global indices. Other way round, if data shows downbeat results, then downside in indices & buying bias in Gold can be noticed.
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