Latest NFP (US Non-Farm Payroll) Data Prediction for the Month of March 2023

US Non-Farm Payroll Data Forecast

The strong global cues have widely turned bullish for U.S & other major equity markets throughout the  month. Majorly, the panic over U.S banking crisis cooled down after the news spurred-in that the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is likely to be taken over by its peer First Citizen Bank whereas the shut-down of the former was held accountable for downfall in markets in early March. However, this raised the chances of smaller interest rate hikes in FOMC’s upcoming meetings. Furthermore, the tumbling Oil prices, weaking US Dollar Index & improving global growth led positive sentiments amongst the traders & investors. The traders will be looking forward to the result of U.S Non-farm payroll which to be issued on April 07, 6.00pm IST, Friday & will show a change in the number of employed people during the previous month, i.e. March, excluding the farming industry.

The report expects a mild drop-down in employment figure by 236K lower than previous reading of 311K & an Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 3.6%.

Below is the Graph showing the changes in Employment data since last three months.

 

Above graph shows not-much progress in employment sector in last three months.

On Wednesday, the estimates of U.S ADP Employment Change showed a fall in number of employed people by 145K versus 261K last month & the Unemployment Claims rose to 228K against expectation of 246K.

If NFP data comes out to be stronger, then the possible effect can be – strong US Dollar Index, soft precious metals & stronger global indices. Other way round, if data shows downbeat results, then downside in indices & buying bias in Gold can be noticed.