The recent FOMC’s decision of raising an interest rate by 75 bps leading to 4.00% range from 3.25% led slight selling pressure in indices. However, an effect was short-lived since the same has been factored in earlier. On positive side, improving economic conditions at global level & chances of easing down of Covid-19 restrictions makes the US Dollar Index weaker & other currencies & commodities stronger. The not-so aggressive stance by other major Central Banks led buying in major indices. The market will be monitoring an outcome of U.S Non-farm payroll which to be issued on November 04, 6.00pm IST, Friday & will show a change in the number of employed people during the previous month, i.e. October, excluding the farming industry.
The report expects a drop-down in employment figure by 197K lower than previous reading of 263K & Unemployment Rate can be increased to 3.6% from 3.5%.
Above graph shows mild progress in employment sector in last three months & the recent forecast may drag down the curve.
The estimates of U.S ADP Employment Change rose to 239K whereas the Unemployment Claims climbed to 217K. These mixed data may create ambiguity towards today’s Non-farm Payroll figures.
If NFP data comes out to be stronger, then the possible effect can be – strong US Dollar Index, soft precious metals & stronger global indices. Other way round, if data shows downbeat results, then downside in indices & buying bias in Gold can be noticed.
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